Increasing pressure on consumer finances remains a common theme in Holiday 2026 forecasting, with the National Retail Federation now expecting core retail sales up 4.2% over ‘25 for the Nov. 1-Dec. 31 window. Circana sees more consumers delaying or canceling travel while still prioritizing their gift budgets, but it still guides overall Holiday-related spending between -1.0% and 2.5% vs. last year.

Based on the NRF’s figures, 4.2% growth would put the top line at $1.013 trillion, lapping last year’s 3.1% gain to $972 billion. The expected percentage gain in the largest since ... Log in to view full article.